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􀂄 Chip vendors might be more aggressive in 2011…
The turnaround of Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD) was the major event in
2010. Looking forward, we might see fiercer competition between the leader Mediatek (MTK) and SPRD. New entrants including MStar, MDT, Infromax and Coolsand will want to expand their shares in the market. We expect the handset IC market to remain highly competitive.
􀂄 …but we expect few market share changes in the near term Among the top three 2G chip vendors, we think MTK should be able to maintain
an approximately 70% share in 2011, unless it makes some wrong decisions as it did in 2009-10, in our view. We think SPRD might not be able to gain market share as smoothly as we previously expected given some technical bugs in its triple-SIM solution. The company should be able to solve the problem soon, but MTK’s qual-SIM solution will also be ready at that time. For MStar, we see few good selling points for its handset chips compared with the leaders and think nearterm upside for its market share is limited.
􀂄 Smartphone IC: opportunities and challenges
We think the environment is not mature enough for chip vendors to promote their Smartphone solutions to China white-brands in the near-term for several reasons: 1) the street price is still too high (Rmb1,300-1,500) for white-brand users; 2) most white-brand Android phones will not have a GMS license (for Android Marketplace); 3) white-brands will face strong competition from leading companies like Huawei and ZTE; and 4) chip vendors only have EDGE solutions now. The stability of their 3G solutions is still a question mark.
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